Brief overview of the global coal market
In the European coal market, the trend of decline continues to be below $ 92/t. The pressure on the quotes has been caused by factors such as sharply gas prices, increased stocks in the warehouse, as well as the weakness of geopolitical tension.
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The quotation of gas on the center of TTF has dropped to $ 449.12/1000 m3 (-55.51 dollars/1000 m3 to 19.02.2025) compared to the context of negotiations of the United States and Russia for conflict resolution in Ukraine, as well as charcoal reserves in Ara terminals increased to 3.75 million tons (+0.18 million tons or +5% on September 1925).
The coal index of 6000 South Africa continues to drop to 88-89/ton, reaching a minimum of 12 months due to the future position of the main buyers, including India, where the internal delivery is high.
South African Company Sasol will suspend coal exports from May 2025 (two years of planned time) to improve its product quality on Seconda and the place of synthetic fuel production. Sasol exported 2.1 million tons last year. All 5 parts/mines of the company with a capacity of 30.0 million tons per year will be re -oriented for internal delivery.
In China, the price of a 5500 Nar coal at Qinhuangdao port has dropped to $ 100/t. Due to a high proposal and limited industrial activities. Due to large reserves, many coal manufacturers are afraid of further discounts, predicting that this proposal will exceed the demand until June, as the stable production rate is expected until summer. In this regard, suppliers, including Shenhua, increased decrease in their documents. Spot price in the PRC is lower than the contract, which causes concerns between mining companies in a short time. Some market participants do not adjust the contract, and therefore they may not be done.
Some power generation companies are suspended from importing goods that are beneficial for internal companies. Chn Energy has stopped importing for her power plants to focus on buying from her deposits in China. Huaneng Group has come in the same way. According to some estimates, these actions will lead to reduced demand for imported coal 3 million tons/month.
The reserves in the 9 largest ports increased to 29.66 million tons (+0.45 million tons of 19.02.2025). Reserve for 6 largest coastal TPPs up to 13.63 million tons (-0.13 million tons), the consumption increased to 788 thousand tons compared to 771 thousand tons a week earlier. Consumer growth may be limited due to forecasting the warming in the near future (in the east of the PRC, the increase in temperature is expected to be more than 10 ° C).
The quotes of the Indonesian coal move multi -dimensional. Indonesia's coal index of 5900 Gar has dropped to 85 dollars/ton, the price of 4200 Gar materials is still at $ 48.5/t. Pressure on Cao -Calorie has been played by South Africa. Support for the quotes of low -class -Calorie is guaranteed according to demand in China.
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of Indonesia issued a decision that from March 1, 2025, all export sales should be carried out in accordance with the country's internal price index (HBA). Therefore, between the world and the internal price of Indonesia, there is no significant delay in indicators will be published more often. Suppliers are afraid that buyers will refuse to switch to new indicators due to the blur and inaccuracy possible. At the same time, the government hopes that the new law will increase tax revenue and will not affect coal export volume.
Australian coal 6000 high drops to less than $ 100/t, according to the general negative trend, in the context of limited demand due to high reserves and storage in the warehouse.
The coal index of Australian HCC decreased to $ 187/t. Due to exceeding demand. In addition, the demand in India is characterized by the need for small parties and is unable to level the collapse of demand in Japan, Korea and Southeast Asia. At the same time, US and Canada suppliers also actively provide their documents to Indian consumers.
The pressure on the quotes is also reported on the reduction of possible steel production in China, where there are too many coal proposals of itself.
Kuzbass is planned to allocate quotas for exporting 20 million tons of coal in the Western direction
The Russian Federation's energy set considers the possibility of Kuzbass allocation for Kuzbass quota with a volume of up to 20 million tons of coal for export in the West. This measure is aimed at increasing coal exports through the northwestern ports of Russia and the Azov-Black (ACH) marine basin. As part of the initiative, it is planned to use the tax reduction rate for coal transport of Russian rail.
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Currently, coal exports in these areas are made without quotes. Proposal to allocate quotas published during the visit of the Deputy Prime Minister of Russian Federation Alexander Novak to the Kemerovo area. The issues of the implementation of this initiative are in the review stage in the Russian Energy Ministry.
This project raises questions among market participants. Despite the reduction of the railway shipment exported by 2024, the total volume of supplies from Kuzbass to the ports of the West up to 46.6 million tons of coal (-13.0 million tons or -21.8% to 2023), of which ::
• 4.5 million tons (-4.4 million tons or -11.3% to 2023) have been put into stations of the Northwest;
• 12.1 million tons (-8.6 million tons or -41.5% to 2023) have been sent to ACH ports.
Therefore, with the operation of a quota for delivery of 20 million tons from Kuzbass, about 27 million tons of high quality Russian coal will be lost to the export market.
At the same time, the designed capacity declared with only one Oteko station in Taman allows you to exceed about 60 million tons of coal per year.
The Russian Railway and the Kemerovo area signed an export agreement to winter in 2025 with the amount of 54.1 million tons of coal, corresponding to the 2024 parameters.
In 2024, the railway exports to the east up to 50.2 million tons (+0.1 million tons or +0.2% in 2023).
In 2024, coal mining in Kuzbass dropped to 198.4 million tons (-15.8 million tons or -7.3% to 2023), while exports from the area dropped to 102.0 million tons (-11.8 million tons or -10.4% by 2023).
In turn, Governor Kuzbass stated that the coal mining companies of the area were ready to export in 2025. 202.5 million tons: east of 99.2 million tons, Northwest – 66.7 million tons, South – 36.6 million tons.
Due to system problems with shipping on the Russian railway network, high transportation costs, as well as international and low -price sanctions, the reduction of Russian coal exports in 2024, resulting in reduced delivery volume to the international market to 195.0 million tons (-17.1 million tons or -8%.
Most manufacturers are forced to export coal or negative profits. Russian suppliers must reduce exports in all directions. The delivery through the ports of the South, as well as the Northwest, is not beneficial, the access to rail capacity is still limited compared to the foundation of the growth of railway tariffs, production costs, increasing the exchange rate of the ruble and the collapse of world indicators.
Kemerovo region is the main coal area of Russia, providing more than 50% of coal production in the country. More than 96 thousand people are recruited in industries and more than 150 operating coal enterprises in the region. The coal industry plays an important role in the economy of the region, is a city -creating most of the region's settlements and creates an important part of the revenue of the regional budget. In 2024, two mines and six parts stopped operating in the region. The proportion of companies that are not beneficial exceeds 50%.
The eight coal companies of Kuzbass have stopped working
At the eight Kuzbass coal mining enterprises, production activities were suspended. Coal has stopped making 6 cuts and 2 mines, including the cuts of Zadubrovsky Novy and Evinsky Novy, the mines of Olzheras-New and Inspr, almost bankrupt. About 600 people working in these organizations and most of the months do not receive salaries.
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The reason for the suspension of businesses is a difficult situation in the coal market due to sanctions, decreasing prices and inability to provide the necessary volumes through the eastern training ground to Asia-Pacific countries.
Due to the crisis, companies are forced to reduce production, investment and in some cases of suspension of prey. High railway tariffs and the main ratio rise are also a serious challenge for the coal industry.
In 2024, coal mining in Kuzbass dropped to 198.4 million tons (-15.8 million tons or -7.3% to 2023). In January 2025, businesses exploited 17.0 million tons (-0.1 million tons or -0.6% in January 2024).